Named Storm Andrea - 2007

Pastor Gary · 05-09-2007, 08:21 PM

Nearly a month before the official start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season and we already have a named storm. This storm is sub tropical - which means that it formed outside of the tropics and is driven by a fairly conventional low pressure area off the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas. It is a "cold core" storm which means that it has little chance to become more intense than it currently is. The winds near the stom's center have been hovering at around 45 to 55 MPH with substantial surf action, beach errosion and significant rip currents from 150 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina, all the way to Miami, Florida.
Persons along this section of coastline can expect heavy rains, high wind gusts, and a small possibility of tornado formation.
There is a good aspect to this storm... it will assist firefighters in quencing the many wildfires in Georgia and northern Florida over the next 36 hours.
Persons in the coastal areas as mentioned, should monitor local Media and NOAA weather updates for official news and advisories.
Our next update will take place if any significant changes occur.
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"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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acral · 05-09-2007, 09:36 PM

acral · 05-10-2007, 01:45 PM

As you can see, there is no consensus among the models. This storm is sloppy and disorganized, yet wind speeds are remaining consistant. Based on initial data this morning, it appears that sub-tropical storm Andrea has now become tropical depression Andrea, thus converting from a cold core system to a warm core system.

Boanerges · 05-10-2007, 01:57 PM

My question is this-are the Gulf waters warm enough this time of year to support a substantial system or even a hurricane?

Pastor Gary · 05-10-2007, 03:56 PM

Whenever the waters reach into the low 80's, there is potential for warm core development and convection. The warmer the waters, the more "engine" is available to get these storms going. We can see that Andrea is in a position to "possibly" enter Gulf waters - which are several degrees warmer than the Atlantic waters. It will loose some 'steam' going over the Florida Penninsula and it all depends upon how much energy is left as it gets into those Gulf waters as to future development. None of the models that we have run OR those run by NOAA are showing a concensus of steering currents - therefore it is a rough one to predict.

The Gulf waters are in the high 70's today and while some development is remotely possible IF this storm makes it into the Gulf, the waters are just not quite 'friendly' enough for major development. If this were taking place in September - it would be a significant concern !!

We will stay on top of this because one model indicates a Gulf entry in 24 to 36 hours while other models are moving this storm southeast back into the Atlantic. Check this water vapor infrared and you will see what is taking place at this hour:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv.jpg

================================================== =======
"THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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05-09-2007, 08:21 PM	#1 (permalink)
Pastor Gary Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee and Wisconsin seasonally. Posts: 4,818 Rep Power: 6	Named Storm Andrea - 2007 Nearly a month before the official start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season and we already have a named storm. This storm is sub tropical - which means that it formed outside of the tropics and is driven by a fairly conventional low pressure area off the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas. It is a "cold core" storm which means that it has little chance to become more intense than it currently is. The winds near the stom's center have been hovering at around 45 to 55 MPH with substantial surf action, beach errosion and significant rip currents from 150 miles northeast of Charleston, South Carolina, all the way to Miami, Florida. Persons along this section of coastline can expect heavy rains, high wind gusts, and a small possibility of tornado formation. There is a good aspect to this storm... it will assist firefighters in quencing the many wildfires in Georgia and northern Florida over the next 36 hours. Persons in the coastal areas as mentioned, should monitor local Media and NOAA weather updates for official news and advisories. Our next update will take place if any significant changes occur. ================================================== ======= "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory." ================================================== =======

05-10-2007, 01:45 PM	#3 (permalink)
acral Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Gulf Shores, Al Posts: 29 Rep Power: 0	Where am I going? As you can see, there is no consensus among the models. This storm is sloppy and disorganized, yet wind speeds are remaining consistant. Based on initial data this morning, it appears that sub-tropical storm Andrea has now become tropical depression Andrea, thus converting from a cold core system to a warm core system.

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05-09-2007, 09:36 PM	#2 (permalink)
acral Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Gulf Shores, Al Posts: 29 Rep Power: 0

05-10-2007, 01:57 PM	#4 (permalink)
Boanerges Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: St Rose LA Posts: 16,681 Blog Entries: 3 Rep Power: 18	My question is this-are the Gulf waters warm enough this time of year to support a substantial system or even a hurricane?

05-10-2007, 03:56 PM	#5 (permalink)
Pastor Gary Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee and Wisconsin seasonally. Posts: 4,818 Rep Power: 6	Whenever the waters reach into the low 80's, there is potential for warm core development and convection. The warmer the waters, the more "engine" is available to get these storms going. We can see that Andrea is in a position to "possibly" enter Gulf waters - which are several degrees warmer than the Atlantic waters. It will loose some 'steam' going over the Florida Penninsula and it all depends upon how much energy is left as it gets into those Gulf waters as to future development. None of the models that we have run OR those run by NOAA are showing a concensus of steering currents - therefore it is a rough one to predict. The Gulf waters are in the high 70's today and while some development is remotely possible IF this storm makes it into the Gulf, the waters are just not quite 'friendly' enough for major development. If this were taking place in September - it would be a significant concern !! We will stay on top of this because one model indicates a Gulf entry in 24 to 36 hours while other models are moving this storm southeast back into the Atlantic. Check this water vapor infrared and you will see what is taking place at this hour: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv.jpg ================================================== ======= "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory." ================================================== =======