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Sub Tropical Invest 90L

Discussion in 'Severe Weather' started by Pastor Gary, May 22, 2009.

  1. Sub Tropical Invest 90L

    We have been watching a coastal storm system for nearly a week, now, which originated in the Caribbean and is now in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system has been responsible for significant flooding in most of Florida over the past 4 days. This system has been extra-tropical in nature, but is showing some signs of becoming a surface low. This could become a Tropical Depression and for that reason, Hurricane Hunter Aircraft are investigating this system today and Saturday.

    If it DOES become a tropical system, this post and subsequent postings will be moved from this area into the Tropical Systems area.

    For those along the Gulf Coast of the US, please monitor your local NWS and NOAA advisories for up to the minute information. We are also suppluing a GOES satellite image link for reference:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

    Please use the first link below for general Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

    ================================================== =======
    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  2. Requirements for a TS or Hurricane

    Pastor Gary.

    Sunspot activity has dropped significantly since 2004. This has caused a correlation in cooling of the earth. The oceans have cooled significantly as well. That is why all the main players have dropped their predictions for this year. Most are just around 10 with 50% TS and 50% hurricanes.

    In 2000, the average USA winter temps were 37+Degrees. Now, they have dropped to 33. This affects the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.

    According to Steve Jarve of Channel 8 News in Tampa, the oceans must be 82 degrees at 100 feet deep.

    We are not quite there yet.

    We may be entering the coldest sunspot cycle since 1710 or 1810. If so, may cont. to see a drop in TS and Hurricanes to almost zero in 20 years.

    Maybe by late June, we may start seeing some activity.

    Paul Pierett
     
  3. Thanks for your feedback, Paul.

    Statistically June is a near-zero Tropical Storm formation month. But, we must always be observant and prepared for any eventuality. Invest 90L developed off the coast of Cape Hatteras and moved northeasterly from the Gulf Stream warmth into the relatively cool central Atlantic waters and lost it's source of development - warm water.

    Our 'Tropical Storm Research Center' volunteers are monitoring each day and will post our unofficial advisories and updates in 7 forums and websites as warranted.

    If anyone wishes to visit our headquarters website in Baldwin County, Alabama, please feel free to do so:

    Tropical Storm Research Center


    We certainly hope that this season will be calm. Our studies group does not make predictions as certain 'educated individuals' do each year. It serves no purpose to make long term predictions of storm numbers and potential severity - except to agitate property owners and insurance companies. We refuse to participate in that politically and ego motivated 'prediction' game. We monitor and unofficially report using some of the most sophisticated software in use anywhere. Our staff writes our own software and it is proprietary to our group of volunteer analysts.
     
  4. Pastor Gary,

    I completeted a paper on the correlation of sun spot activity and accumulated cyclone energy. Can I send it to the web site mentioned?

    Paul Pierett
     
  5. Paul: Since your CFS post count has not yet reached 15 posts, I can not as yet send you private instructions regarding your offer. Your Private Messaging here at CFS activates once you hit 15 posts. This activation point is to prevent agenda driven new members from spamming the forum members with Private Messages. Once you attain 15 CFS postings, please PM me and I'll give you secure instructions regarding forwarding your offer. I do not wish to post that info in the open forum here.

    Thank you.


    Pastor Gary
     
  6. Pastor Gary,

    Well, that may take a while.

    I'm finishing up another paper on a climate forecast for the next 30 years.

    I just finished another paper on Adam and Noah in the last Ice Age.

    I guess this makes two entries.

    Paul Pierett
     

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