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Named Storm: Dean

Discussion in 'Tropical Systems' started by Pastor Gary, Aug 14, 2007.

  1. Named Storm: Dean

    Within the past 15 minutes, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has upgraded Tropical Depression # 4, to Tropical STORM strength and has named it Tropical Storm Dean.

    The storm is currently 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilies and is moving westerly at 23 miles per hour. The storm is expected to SLOW its forward progress, which will allow it to strengthen. Maximum sustained central core winds are currently at 43 miles per hour and increasing.

    This storm will start affecting Barbados by Friday evening, August 17 and Puerto Rico by Sunday morning, August 19. As this storm builds, more watches and advisories will be posted along its path. In the mean time, persons in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the situation closely. This storm has the potential to start affecting US coastal areas as early as Tuesday and Wednesday, August 21-22. However, it is much too early to predict strength and tracking into or near US coastal areas at this time.

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  2. Tropical Storm Dean Update - 15 August 2007 - 05:30 Hrs USA CDT

    Tropical Storm Dean has slowed, as anticipated, to 18 miles per hour and is continuing in it's generally westerly track. It has taken a slightly more southern course and is now intensifying. Central core sustained winds are at 52 miles per hour and this will further develop with the storm probably becoming a Hurricane by the weekend. Conditions at this time, are supporting that development.

    With the current track and very little land mass to get in it's way for at least 3 to 4 days, this storm is one to watch carefully. Our next update will be posted as further development takes place. Until then, persons from the Carolinas to southern Florida and all along the US Gulf Coast should monitor this storm diligently. Whether or not this storm makes a US landfall, coastal residents should have their Hurricane and Evacuation plans in place due to the general increasing activity in the western Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  3. Tropical Storm Dean Update 15 August 2007, 15:30 Hours USA CDT:

    Tropical storm Dean has intensified with winds in the central core at 63 Miles Per Hour and is still on a westerly track traveling at 18 to 20 Miles per hour and is approximately 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. This current track, if maintained, will place the storm in warmer waters very soon and this will cause increased intensification. Hurricane status for Dean is expected within the next 4 to 12 hours.

    Those persons with interests in the area of Barbados and Puerto Rico should monitor local media broadcasts for official updates. Persons along the Gulf Coast of the US should also monitor the progress of this storm. The potential for this storm to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, in roughly a week, is probable.

    Our next update will be at 05:00 Hrs (AM) Thursday August 16 and a hurricane status report will be posted at that time.

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  4. HURRICANE DEAN Update 05:30 Hrs USA CDT 16 August 2007

    As anticipated, Tropical Storm Dean was upgraded to HURRICANE DEAN within the past 8 hours. This storm is currently 450 miles east of Barbados moving in a westerly direction at just over 20 miles per hour. The central core winds have been monitored at 77 miles per hour sustained, with gusting to near 90 miles per hour. HURRICAN DEAN is expected to maintain it's direction and forward speed and eventually develop into a MAJOR Hurricane (Catagory 3 or higher) as it approaches and then passes the Lesser Antillies and Hispaniola. Persons throughout those areas are being advised to prepare for hurricane force winds, storm surge, wave action and torrential rains. especially from the northeastern quadrant of the storm.

    This Hurricane will be entering the Caribbean Sea early Friday, August 17. It will then continue to move westerly with a slight northward jog by Saturday and into Sunday. It will be located near the Mexican Yucatan Penninsula (Southern Gulf of Mexico) by roughly Tuesday, August 21 and will then be influenced by a weather system which will be coming into the southwestern United States by Wednesday. The timing of that influence is critical for the ultimate track of Hurricane Dean after Tuesday and Wednesday, August 21-22.

    Persons along the entire Gulf Coast of the United States should have their Hurricane Preparedness and Evacuation plans in order and rehearsed. MANY variables still exist in determining the ultimate strength and track of DEAN, but this will be a major weather event and a very dangerous storm as it nears the US coastal areas late next week. Monitor your local NOAA and NWS official broadcasts as well as local media for advisories from your Emergency Operations Centers. Our next update will be posted at 05:30 AM, USA CDT on Friday, August 17.

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  5. Noaa Tropical Predictions Center, Miami

    For those persons who wish to track Hurricane Dean and future storms to better understand the dynamics of how these move and intensify, please feel free to use the public access link as listed below. Click on "Public Advisory" under Hurricane DEAN and also look over the maps. They expand as you click on them.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
     
  6. Supplemental Update

    HURRICANE DEAN SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE, 17:30 Hrs USA CDT, 16 August 2007

    The National Hurricane Center in Miami just received word from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that Hurricane DEAN is now at Category 2 with wind speeds in the central core at 107 miles per hour with gusting to over 120. Persons in the Lesser Antillies, Barbados and Hispaniola are now under various Hurricane Watches and Warnings.

    This storm is strengthening by the hour and will reach Category 3 - possibly by our next scheduled posting time of 05:30 AM USA CDT Friday.

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  7. HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE - August 17, 2007, 05:30 Hrs USA CDT

    Hurricane Dean has struck several island nations in the Lesser Antillies and is currently located in the St. Lucia channel between St. Lucia and Martinique. The storm is moving in a westerly direction at 23 miles per hour with top sustained winds hovering around 107 miles per hour and gusting to over 120 miles per hour.

    This dangerous storm will track to the south of Hispaniola and as it does, the storm will gain in strength and most likely become a Catagory 3 storm within the next 18 to 24 hours.

    We are reminding persons along the entire Gulf Coast of the US, to monitor the progress of this storm intently. At least two computer models are placing this Hurricane into the central Gulf Coast by roughly the end of next week, while other models are indicating a possible Mexico - Texas border landfall. While the eventual track is still impossible to accurately predict at this time, all persons along the US Gulf Coast should be monitoring NOAA and local media. You can also use the link below for up to the minute updates direct from NOAA. Our next scheduled update will be posted at 05:30 AM, Saturday August 18.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  8. SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE - 16:00 Hrs USA CDT, 17 August 2007

    Hurricane Dean is now in the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and is going through a rapid strengthening phase. It is anticipated that this storm will go from it's current Category 3 level to a strong Category 4 within 12 to 24 hours - possibly earlier.

    Persons in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are in the direct path of this major hurricane. We are also seeing SOME of the computer modeling advancing the storm track a bit more to the north within 36 hours and that is bad news for the Gulf Coast of the United States.

    Our next scheduled update will be around 05:30 AM Saturday, August 18. Until then, please monitor the hurricane's progress and listen for preparedness advisories by way of your local media and the NOAA site listed below.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  9. HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE, 05:30 Hrs USA CDT, August 18, 2007

    Hurricane Dean, as anticipated, increased in strength to a very strong Category 4 storm overnight with sustained sea level winds at just over 150 miles per hour. [ Category 5, the highest category, starts at 156 miles per hour.]

    The storm continues it's westward track through the central Caribbean Sea and is taking aim at Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The forward speed has decreased to 17 miles per hour. This is significant because as it slows, it draws more and more energy from the warm waters and intensifies even more. This is also significant because an upper level low pressure area over Florida will be moving westerly in a couple of days. The counterclockwise rotation of the upper level low could change the track of Hurricane Dean starting Tuesday and Wednesday next week, to a more northerly track. This could possibly steer Dean into a US Gulf Coast landfall anywhere from west central Florida over to east central Texas. Again, timing on these two storm systems interacting with each other is critical.

    We may post an update late Saturday afternoon August 18 - IF any major changes take place. Otherwise, we will post new information around 05:30 hrs. USA CDT, Sunday August 19. Please use the link below for official updates.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  10. HURRICANE DEAN Update 05:30 Hrs USA CDT, August 19, 2007

    Hurricane DEAN continues to move west northwest and is approximately 200 miles east southeast of the Jamaican coast. DEAN is still a high Category 4 storm and is still moving on it's track at 17 miles per hour. However, as is normal with this size storm, some fluctuations in wind speed take place. The maximum sustained surface level winds are down 5 miles per hour to around 145 mph, but the winds at 10,000 feet are still gusting to over 185 mph.

    Jamaica and the Cayman Islands will be affected severely by this dangerous killer Hurricane over the next 8 to 36 hours. Warnings have been issued and evacuations are taking place at this hour.

    We are also noting this morning that the low pressure area aloft that was hovering near south central Florida has weakend and AT THIS TIME, will not be affecting the track of DEAN to any significant extent. That could change early next week, but at THIS TIME, the forecast track of Dean will place it in northeastern Mexico by late this coming week.

    For persons along the US Gulf of Mexico coastline, do not let your guard down. This storm still has the potential to be influenced by other weather systems and it's track COULD possibly move further north as time goes on.
    Our next scheduled update will be on Monday morning, August 20, 2007, at approximately 05:30 hrs USA CDT. Until then, all US Coastal residents should monitor this dangerous storm vigilently.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  11. HURRICANE DEAN SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE 17:30 Hrs USA CDT, August 20, 2007

    After devastating parts of Jamaica and doing significant damage on Grand Cayman Island, Hurricane Dean will make landfall on the eastern Yucatan Penninsula Tuesday morning, August 21. It will then loose some of it's strength by passing over the mountains in the area and re-emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday.

    At this time, the storm track will cross the southern Gulf of Mexico and place the hurricane on land in east central Mexico early Wednesday morning August 22.

    The weather system timing that was so critical to the storm making any northerly turns has not materialized. However, since this storm is so wide, persons in southeastern Texas coastal areas are preparing for gusty winds and significant rainfall starting late Tuesday into Thursday and Friday. This storm may possibly strengthen to Category 5 levels later tonight.

    Our next update will be around 05:30 AM Tuesday August 21.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  12. Increasing Intensity

    Major Hurricane Dean has attained Category Five status with sustained winds at 160mph, and is expected to strengthen further before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.
    Conditions have rapidly deteriorated, and this system could become one of the strongest landfalling storms on record at the point of landfall. The Buoy at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056 is reporting 35 foot waves, much higher than a typical single tsunami event.

    To put this in perspective, lets review a deadly F3 tornado's impact:

    -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
    F3 Severe tornado 158-206 mph
    Roof and some walls torn off well constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forests uprooted.
    -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

    Now, most tornados last around 30 seconds. Imagine this impact for over 3 hours, up to 12+ hours. While you have that firmly in mind, add a massive, unrelenting push of water, ultimately raising the water levels by up to 20+ feet. Once you have that firmly in mind, add spin off tornados, while all the rest is going on. One more to add, think about all of that then drop 20 inches of rain per hour.

    It is a truly devastating scenario.
    Elsewhere in the tropics, Invest 92L continues to look disorganized, but conditions are favorable for some slow development. This system has more potential to pose a threat to the United States than Major Hurricane Dean, however, the intensity of this system should be much less.
     
  13. HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE 05:30 Hrs USA CDT August 21, 2007

    Category 5 - The highest level of Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson devastation scale... That is what has made landfall in the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico. Current winds are at 165 miles per hour with gusting to just under 200 miles per hour.

    This catastrophic, deadly storm will move across the Penninsula today and re-emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico where it will continue on it's westerly track and make a second Mexico landfall near coordinates 20 North by 96.5 West on Mexico's eastern Gulf Coast.

    Persons in coastal areas of southeastern Texas can expect very high winds, significant rainfall, localized flooding, some storm surge and beach errosion from the right quadrant of this hurricane.

    Our next scheduled update will be Wednesday morning at around 05:30 AM CDT. Until then, use the link below for official updates and information.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Thanks to Acral for the comparative information and for the update !

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  14. HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE - 05:30 Hrs USA CDT August 22, 2007

    As Hurricane Dean made landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Penninsula on Tuesday, it encountered a mountainous region that shut down it's energy source; namely the warm Caribbean waters. Hurricane Dean emerged into the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf of Mexico) as a weak Category 1 storm with top winds at only 80 miles per hour. While some strengthening is possible before it's landfall into east central Mexico, the extreme winds that once accompanied this hurricane are all but gone.

    Significant rainfall and a 6 foot storm surge will be felt at landfall later today. Some flooding is anticipated in the general area of east central Mexico. Since this hurricane is no longer a threat to US coastal areas, this will be our final SCHEDULED update for Hurricane Dean. We may post additional details at a later time.

    PLEASE NOTE: We are closely watching a Tropical low pressure area between Haiti and Jamaica. This low pressure area has potential to strengthen and we will post data concerning it if it becomes an area of more interest. For up to the minute Tropical System information, please use the NOAA link below.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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  15. HURRICANE DEAN - Final Recap August 23, 2007

    Hurricane Dean was a record setter. It was one of the fastest-ever forward moving hurricanes that achieved major hurricane status and it was one of only a few hurricanes in recorded history that made landfall as a Category 5 storm.

    This deadly storm was responsible for over a dozen deaths in 4 countries and that toll is expected to climb as searchers get into additional remote locations.

    The remnants of Dean are dissipating in the mountains of east central Mexico. Flooding has taken place in that region and authorities are dealing with the aftermath.

    This is our final message concerning Hurricane Dean. We are watching two low pressure waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean and will post information if necessary as things develop.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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    "THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory."
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