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Jet Stream Activity as related to Atlantic Origin Tropical Storms

Discussion in 'Severe Weather' started by Pastor Gary, Sep 24, 2014.

  1. The Jet Stream pattern for the 2014 Hurricane Season thus far has been producing very high velocity upper level shear (winds that tear thunderstorm tops apart) so Tropical Systems can not survive long enough to develop into Major Category Hurricanes very often. The storms that do form are short lived because they are directed to the north from their origins in the central Atlantic this time of the year by upper level Atlantic high pressure areas and travel over cooler waters so their 'furnace' can not draw energy from the sea surface thermally.

    We are getting to a point in the season where more activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico can be expected, however with upper level shear as it is, we are not expecting rapid development in general terms. There is always a chance that conditions in the upper levels will calm with high pressure 0ver the area, and a low to mid level storm may form as low pressure moves in behind the High. This year, those will be a bit rare... not impossible, but statistically a low probability as compared to a weak Jet Stream shear as we saw about a decade ago along with frequent high intensity Hurricanes.

    The intensity of the Jet Stream and it's movements over the Americas and Atlantic are linked in several ways to the surface water temperatures in the east central Pacific Ocean. With slightly warming Pacific surface temperatures in the Tropics, the Jet Stream east of this Pacific region has higher velocity upper level winds which is not a friendly environment for Atlantic origin Tropical Storm formation.

    TSRC is running computer modeling daily on all Atlantic basin Tropical Storm possibilities and will post unofficial details if needed.
    dUmPsTeR likes this.

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