Whenever the waters reach into the low 80's, there is potential for warm core development and convection. The warmer the waters, the more "engine" is available to get these storms going. We can see that Andrea is in a position to "possibly" enter Gulf waters - which are several degrees warmer than the Atlantic waters. It will loose some 'steam' going over the Florida Penninsula and it all depends upon how much energy is left as it gets into those Gulf waters as to future development. None of the models that we have run OR those run by NOAA are showing a concensus of steering currents - therefore it is a rough one to predict.
The Gulf waters are in the high 70's today and while some development is remotely possible IF this storm makes it into the Gulf, the waters are just not quite 'friendly' enough for
major development. If this were taking place in September - it would be a significant concern !!
We will stay on top of this because one model indicates a Gulf entry in 24 to 36 hours while other models are moving this storm southeast back into the Atlantic. Check this water vapor infrared and you will see what is taking place at this hour:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv.jpg
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